YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.8% annual gain in December, up from 3.5% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.4%, up from 2.0% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.9% year-over-year gain, up from 2.5% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Charlotte and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In December, Phoenix led the way with a 6.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by Charlotte with a 5.3% increase and Tampa with a 5.2% increase. Twelve of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending December 2019 versus the year ending November 2019.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1%, while the 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% increase and the 20-City Composite did not post any gains before seasonal adjustment in December. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.4% increases. In December, 10 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment while 19 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"The U.S. housing market continued its trend of stable growth in December," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "December's results bring the National Composite Index to a 3.8% increase for calendar 2019. This marks eight consecutive years of increasing housing prices (an increase which is echoed in our 10- and 20-City Composites). At the national level, home prices are 59% above the trough reached in February 2012, and 15% above their pre-financial crisis peak. Results for 2019 were broad-based, with gains in every city in our 20-City Composite.
"At a regional level, Phoenix retains the top spot for the seventh consecutive month, with a gain of 6.5% for December. Charlotte and Tampa rose by 5.3% and 5.2% respectively, leading the Southeast region. The Southeast has led all regions for the past year.
"As was the case last month, after a long period of decelerating price increases, the National, 10-City, and 20-City Composites all rose at a faster rate in December than they had done in November; 12 of our 20 cities likewise saw accelerating prices. It is, of course, too soon to say whether this marks an end to the deceleration or is merely a pause in the longer-term trend."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index |
Level |
Date |
Level |
Date | From Peak
|
Level | From Trough
| From Peak
|
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 212.59 | 58.6% | 15.2% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 218.73 | 63.1% | 5.9% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 231.55 | 58.1% | 2.3% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for December 2019. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
|
| December 2019 | December/November | November/October | 1-Year | ||||
| Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) | ||||
| Atlanta | 154.81 | -0.1% | 0.2% | 4.1% | ||||
| Boston | 224.87 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 4.5% | ||||
| Charlotte | 167.60 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 5.3% | ||||
| Chicago | 143.77 | -0.1% | -0.7% | 1.0% | ||||
| Cleveland | 126.72 | -0.7% | -0.1% | 3.6% | ||||
| Dallas | 192.81 | -0.2% | 0.2% | 2.6% | ||||
| Denver | 223.08 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 3.7% | ||||
| Detroit | 127.54 | -0.1% | -0.4% | 3.4% | ||||
| Las Vegas | 195.18 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 2.6% | ||||
| Los Angeles | 289.15 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.7% | ||||
| Miami | 247.17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 3.2% | ||||
| Minneapolis | 178.42 | -0.6% | -0.6% | 3.7% | ||||
| New York | 203.09 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.0% | ||||
| Phoenix | 199.53 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 6.5% | ||||
| Portland | 240.56 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 3.7% | ||||
| San Diego | 263.51 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 4.7% | ||||
| San Francisco | 266.66 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.1% | ||||
| Seattle | 254.31 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 4.1% | ||||
| Tampa | 224.91 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 5.2% | ||||
| Washington | 235.07 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 3.4% | ||||
| Composite-10 | 231.55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.4% | ||||
| Composite-20 | 218.73 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.9% | ||||
| U.S. National | 212.59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 3.8% | ||||
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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| Data through December 2019 |
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