YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.5% annual gain in November, up from 3.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.0%, up from 1.7% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.6% year-over-year gain, up from 2.2% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Charlotte and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In November, Phoenix led the way with a 5.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Charlotte with a 5.2% increase and Tampa with a 5.0% increase. Fifteen of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending November 2019 versus the year ending October 2019.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1% before seasonal adjustment in November. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index, 10-City and 20-City Composites all posted a 0.5% increase. In November, 13 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"The U.S. housing market was stable in November," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "With the month's 3.5% increase in the national composite index, home prices are currently 59% above the trough reached in February 2012, and 15% above their pre-financial crisis peak. November's results were broad-based, with gains in every city in our 20-city composite.
"At a regional level, Phoenix retains the top spot for the sixth consecutive month, with a gain of 5.9% for November. Charlotte and Tampa rose by 5.2% and 5.0% respectively, leading the Southeast region. The Southeast has led all regions since January 2019."
"As was the case last month, after a long period of decelerating price increases, the National, 10-city, and 20-city Composites all rose at a modestly faster rate in November than they had done in October. This increase was broad-based, reflecting data in 15 of 20 cities. It is, of course, still too soon to say whether this marks an end to the deceleration or is merely a pause in the longer-term trend."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index |
Level |
Date |
Level |
Date | From Peak
|
Level | From Trough
| From Peak
|
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 212.56 | 58.6% | 15.1% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 218.68 | 63.1% | 5.9% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 231.45 | 58.0% | 2.3% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for November 2019. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
|
| November 2019 | November/October | October/September | 1-Year | ||||
| Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) | ||||
| Atlanta | 154.94 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 4.2% | ||||
| Boston | 224.74 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 3.8% | ||||
| Charlotte | 167.53 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 5.2% | ||||
| Chicago | 144.03 | -0.6% | -0.5% | 0.4% | ||||
| Cleveland | 127.67 | -0.1% | -0.5% | 4.0% | ||||
| Dallas | 193.19 | 0.2% | -0.1% | 2.8% | ||||
| Denver | 223.35 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | ||||
| Detroit | 127.96 | -0.3% | -0.6% | 3.2% | ||||
| Las Vegas | 194.97 | 0.4% | -0.2% | 2.6% | ||||
| Los Angeles | 289.17 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2.7% | ||||
| Miami | 246.81 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 3.1% | ||||
| Minneapolis | 179.68 | -0.5% | -0.2% | 3.9% | ||||
| New York | 202.84 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | ||||
| Phoenix | 198.37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 5.9% | ||||
| Portland | 240.20 | 0.1% | -0.5% | 3.3% | ||||
| San Diego | 263.18 | 0.3% | -0.2% | 3.9% | ||||
| San Francisco | 266.50 | 0.2% | -0.4% | 0.5% | ||||
| Seattle | 253.80 | 0.0% | -0.3% | 3.3% | ||||
| Tampa | 224.63 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 5.0% | ||||
| Washington | 234.98 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 3.2% | ||||
| Composite-10 | 231.45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.0% | ||||
| Composite-20 | 218.68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.6% | ||||
| U.S. National | 212.56 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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| Data through November 2019 |
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