YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in August, down from 6.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.1%, down from 5.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.5% year-over-year gain, down from 5.9% in the previous month.
Las Vegas, San Francisco and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In August, Las Vegas led the way with a 13.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Francisco with a 10.6% increase and Seattle with a 9.6% increase. Four of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending August 2018 versus the year ending July 2018.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in August. The 10-City and 20-City Composites did not report any gains for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.6% month-over-month increase in August. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite both posted 0.1% month-over-month increases. In August, 12 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"Following reports that home sales are flat to down, price gains are beginning to moderate," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Comparing prices to their levels a year earlier, 14 of the 20 cities, the National Index plus the 10-city and 20-city Composite Indices all show slower price growth. The seasonally adjusted monthly data show that 10 cities experienced declining prices. Other housing data tell a similar story: prices and sales of new single family homes are weakening, housing starts are mixed and residential fixed investment is down in the last three quarters. Rising prices may be pricing some potential home buyers out of the market, especially when combined with mortgage rates approaching 5% for 30-year fixed rate loans.
"There are no signs that the current weakness will become a repeat of the crisis, however. In 2006, when home prices peaked and then tumbled, mortgage default rates bottomed out and started a three year surge. Today, the mortgage default rates reported by the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are stable. Without a collapse in housing finance like the one seen 12 years ago, a crash in home prices is unlikely."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak (%) | Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) |
National | 184.62 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 205.81 | 53.6% | 11.5% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 213.72 | 59.4% | 3.5% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 227.17 | 55.1% | 0.4% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for August 2018. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
Metropolitan Area | August 2018 | August/July | July/June | 1-Year |
| Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) | |
| Atlanta | 147.98 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 5.8% |
| Boston | 216.44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 5.5% |
| Charlotte | 158.27 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 5.2% |
| Chicago | 145.29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.9% |
| Cleveland | 124.20 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 5.6% |
| Dallas | 187.41 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.7% |
| Denver | 217.06 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 7.7% |
| Detroit | 124.77 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 6.0% |
| Las Vegas | 188.20 | 1.2% | 1.4% | 13.9% |
| Los Angeles | 283.40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 6.2% |
| Miami | 237.99 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 5.0% |
| Minneapolis | 173.81 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 6.0% |
| New York | 198.59 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.8% |
| Phoenix | 184.22 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 7.0% |
| Portland | 235.28 | -0.1% | 0.5% | 5.4% |
| San Diego | 257.21 | -0.5% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| San Francisco | 269.19 | -0.3% | 0.6% | 10.6% |
| Seattle | 253.72 | -1.6% | -0.5% | 9.6% |
| Tampa | 211.50 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 7.0% |
| Washington | 228.62 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.8% |
| Composite-10 | 227.17 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 5.1% |
| Composite-20 | 213.72 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 5.5% |
| U.S. National | 205.81 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 5.8% |
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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| Data through August 2018 |
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