CMD’s June Starts Treaded Water
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CMD’s June Starts Treaded Water

Jul 20, 2015 -- CMD announced today that June’s $30.3 billion of construction starts, excluding residential work, was almost unchanged versus May, -1.0%. Starts treaded water in the latest month, which is unusual given CMD’s long-term May-to-June gain, due to seasonality, of 4.5%.

2015 07 14 US Non-residential Construction Starts June 2015

June’s month-to-month inertia was a pause after May’s extraordinary 37.3% leap. May included a couple of mega-sized project groundbreakings, the likes of which weren’t repeated in June.

Year-to-date starts in 2015 have also been -1.0% relative to the same January-to-June period of last year. Compared with its counterpart month last year, standalone June in 2015 was -4.8%.

The starts figures throughout this report are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor are they adjusted for inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars.  

‘Non-residential building’ plus ‘engineering/civil’ work accounts for a considerably larger share of total construction than residential activity. The former’s combined proportion of total put-in-place construction in the Census Bureau’s May report was 63%; the latter’s was 37%.

CMD’s construction starts are leading indicators for the Census Bureau’s capital investment or put-in-place series. Also, the reporting period for starts (i.e., June 2015) is one month ahead of the reporting period for the investment series (i.e., May 2015.)

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), employment in the U.S. construction sector also stayed flat in June relative to May. The year-over-year increase, however, has been a more-than-respectable 259,000 jobs. The first half of 2015 has contributed 105,000 net new positions.

Total non-farm employment nationwide has been +2.1% year over year. Construction’s increase has been exactly twice as fast, +4.2%. The unemployment rate in construction is currently 6.3% (not seasonally adjusted), a decline of almost 2.0 percentage points from last year’s 8.2% in the same month.

Before there can be on-site construction activity, projects must be contemplated and planned by owners and rendered into working drawings by design professionals. In June, the year-over-year rise in architectural and engineering services employment maintained a strong pace, +3.6%.

Month to month in June, the commercial (+14.8%) and institutional (+10.9%) type-of-structure categories recorded increases in starts. They were offset by engineering’s decline (-8.5%).

Industrial starts also dropped, by half (-50.5%), but this category of work plays a smaller role in the total. There were no industrial project starts in June equivalent to the initiation of work on Tesla Motors’ Nevada battery gigafactory in May, carrying an estimated value of $2.0 billion. Although that’s not to slight a $1.0 billion start on a methanol plant in St. James, Louisiana.

When this year’s individual month of June is compared with the same month last year, the sub-category percentage changes are muted. Institutional work advanced (+2.6%), but the heavy engineering/civil category declined (-1.1%), as did commercial (-2.2%).

The smaller category of industrial starts took a nosedive (-54.8%). Industrial percentage changes are often highly variable depending on the presence, or absence, of a large project or two. 

With respect to year-to-date starts, heavy engineering (+10.2%) has been ‘riding point’. Institutional (-12.9%) and commercial (-9.4%) have been less eager to keep up.

Industrial (+61.2%) year-to-date starts are a source of encouragement. 

Within engineering starts, the biggest sub-category by far is road/highway work. In June, it was -4.1% month to month (m/m) and only +0.8% when compared with the same month of last year (y/y); but it was an expansive +14.4% through this year’s first half versus last year’s (ytd).

Next most important in engineering, water/sewage starts were also so-so in the individual month of June (+0.1% m/m and -4.9% y/y), but more promising on an accumulated basis (+6.2% ytd).

As for institutional, the year-to-date dollar volume of educational facility starts is currently five times greater than for health care projects. School/college starts in June were +5.3% m/m; -14.1% y/y; and -8.5% ytd. So far this year, in contrast to college/universities (-13.1% ytd) and junior/senior high schools (-20.2% ytd), elementary/pre-schools have been upbeat (+11.5% ytd).

Hospital/clinic starts surged in the individual month of June (+29.0% m/m and +79.6% y/y), but remained lower by one-quarter (-25.4%) year-to-date. The recent Supreme Court ruling to solidify the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act provides more stability for investment decisions. Besides, employment growth in the health care field is a robust +2.9% year over year.

Retail starts in commercial work leapt forward in June (+118.8% m/m; +63.4% y/y; and +2.3% ytd), as did the miscellaneous commercial category (+10.7% m/m; +107.8% y/y; and +5.6% ytd). A major sub-component within the latter is sports/convention centers (+67.7% ytd).

Elsewhere in commercial, though, there were hiccups. Private office buildings may have been +23.5% m/m, but they were -42.3% y/y and -35.5% ytd. Government office buildings were -8.3% m/m; +6.8% y/y; and -18.6% ytd.

Among the 12-month moving average trend graphs on page 4, the slope is moving impressively higher for roads/highways and more modestly upwards for water/sewage and bridges. Private office buildings is the one category that has clearly been heading downwards.

According to June’s Employment Situation report from the BLS, construction’s average hourly earnings in June, at +2.4% year over year, modestly outpaced the gain for all sectors, +1.9%. Construction displayed a frothier advance in average weekly earnings, +2.9% versus +1.6%.

The value of construction starts each month is summarized from CMD’s database of all active construction projects in the U.S. Missing project values are estimated with the help of RSMeans’ building cost models.

CMD’s non-residential construction starts series, because it is comprised of total-value estimates for individual projects, some of which are mega-sized, has a history of being more volatile than many other leading indicators for the economy. 

A “start” is determined by taking the announced bid date and adding a short time lag (30 to 60 days). CMD continues to follow the project via its network of researchers. If it is abandoned or re-bid, the start date is updated to reflect the new information.

Click here to download the Construction Industry Snapshot Package - June 2015 PDF.

Click here for the Top 10 largest construction project starts in the U.S. - June 2015.

Click here for the Non-residential Construction Start Trend Graphs - June 2015.

VALUE OF UNITED STATES
CONSTRUCTION STARTS – JUNE 2015
YEAR TO DATE
(CMD)

    % Change   % Change   % Change
  Jan-JUN 15 Jan-JUN 15 vs    JUN 15 vs   JUN 15 vs
  ($ billions) Jan-JUN 14   JUN 14   MAY 15
             
Hotel/Motel 3.844 5.8%   -16.5%   -27.4%
Retail 9.194 2.3%   63.4%   118.8%
Parking Garage 0.985 43.8%   47.0%   16.5%
Amusement 2.495 -16.9%   -26.3%   18.6%
Private Office  6.338 -35.5%   -42.3%   23.5%
Government Office 4.126 -18.6%   6.8%   -8.3%
Laboratory 1.854 11.3%   -94.7%   -95.0%
Warehouse 3.099 -10.7%   -28.8%   85.3%
Miscellaneous Commercial 6.972 5.6%   107.8%   10.7%
COMMERCIAL 38.908 -9.4%   -2.2%   14.8%
             
INDUSTRIAL (Manufacturing) 8.899 61.2%   -54.8%   -50.5%
             
Religious 0.846 18.6%   72.2%   92.2%
Hospital/Clinic 5.089 -25.4%   79.6%   29.0%
Nursing/Assisted Living 2.049 23.1%   8.3%   6.9%
Library/Museum 0.808 -31.9%   -63.6%   -39.8%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 2.595 56.5%   1.8%   11.2%
Military 2.270 -57.2%   117.3%   -7.8%
School/College 26.019 -8.5%   -14.1%   5.3%
Miscellaneous Government 1.361 1.3%   440.5%   308.3%
INSTITUTIONAL 41.037 -12.9%   2.6%   10.9%
             
Miscellaneous Non-residential 1.868 1.5%   -7.3%   -1.1%
NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 90.711 -6.9%   -7.0%   4.2%
             
Airport 1.077 6.1%   18.1%   94.7%
Road/Highway 24.944 14.4%   0.8%   -4.1%
Bridge 6.413 6.2%   -12.1%   -21.7%
Dam/Marine 2.689 41.8%   -31.6%   -25.1%
Water/Sewage 12.825 6.2%   -4.9%   0.1%
Miscellaneous Civil 9.000 1.7%   10.5%   -28.5%
HEAVY ENGINEERING 56.948 10.2%   -1.1%   -8.5%
             
TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL 147.660 -1.0%   -4.8%   -1.0%

Source: CMD Research Group and CMD.
Table: CMD.


VALUE OF UNITED STATES
CONSTRUCTION STARTS – JUNE 2015 – CMD
Billions of current $s, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

  Latest month actuals  Moving averages (placed in end month) Year to Date. 
        3-months 12-months JUN JUN
  APR 15 MAY 15 JUN 15 APR 15 MAY 15 JUN 15 APR 15 MAY 15 JUN 15 2014 2015
                       
Single Family 10.447 12.047 14.229 10.298 10.822 12.241 12.661 12.443 12.387 76.000 67.738
   month-over-month % change 4.8% 15.3% 18.1% -0.4% 5.1% 13.1% -2.5% -1.7% -0.5%    
   year-over-year % change -27.1% -17.9% -4.5% -12.8% -17.3% -16.3% 3.9% 1.5% 0.1% 3.1% -10.9%
Apartment 3.356 3.188 3.135 2.923 2.969 3.226 3.306 3.260 3.258 26.054 18.377
   month-over-month % change 42.0% -5.0% -1.7% 0.8% 1.6% 8.7% 0.9% -1.4% -0.1%    
   year-over-year % change 12.0% -14.8% -0.9% -20.5% -22.2% -2.2% -22.1% -25.1% -23.9% 23.4% -29.5%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 13.803 15.235 17.365 13.222 13.791 15.468 15.968 15.703 15.644 102.054 86.115
   month-over-month % change 11.9% 10.4% 14.0% -0.1% 4.3% 12.2% -1.8% -1.7% -0.4%    
   year-over-year % change -20.3% -17.2% -3.9% -14.7% -18.4% -13.8% -2.8% -5.5% -6.1% 7.6% -15.6%
Hotel/Motel 0.692 0.631 0.458 0.709 0.791 0.594 0.720 0.723 0.716 3.633 3.844
   month-over-month % change -34.0% -8.8% -27.4% 3.2% 11.5% -24.9% 1.5% 0.4% -1.0%    
   year-over-year % change 22.3% 6.3% -16.5% 6.5% 10.1% 4.3% 23.8% 19.7% 14.8% 34.4% 5.8%
Retail 1.193 1.449 3.171 1.227 1.307 1.938 1.494 1.467 1.570 8.987 9.194
   month-over-month % change -6.7% 21.5% 118.8% 8.9% 6.5% 48.3% -1.6% -1.8% 7.0%    
   year-over-year % change -19.7% -18.3% 63.4% -8.8% -17.5% 11.8% 4.4% -0.6% 3.7% -10.0% 2.3%
Parking Garages 0.117 0.198 0.230 0.110 0.160 0.182 0.161 0.167 0.173 0.685 0.985
   month-over-month % change -28.4% 68.6% 16.5% -24.7% 44.8% 13.9% -1.3% 3.8% 3.7%    
   year-over-year % change -17.5% 59.9% 47.0% -5.0% 11.4% 29.1% 0.4% 12.4% 19.3% -25.6% 43.8%
Amusement 0.258 0.536 0.636 0.328 0.389 0.477 0.503 0.509 0.490 3.003 2.495
   month-over-month % change -30.6% 107.8% 18.6% -7.7% 18.6% 22.6% -4.9% 1.3% -3.7%    
   year-over-year % change -54.9% 16.7% -26.3% -13.3% -16.2% -24.5% 2.1% 5.3% -3.2% 18.3% -16.9%
Office 1.862 0.797 0.984 1.166 1.269 1.214 1.208 1.160 1.100 9.821 6.338
   month-over-month % change 62.0% -57.2% 23.5% 29.8% 8.9% -4.4% 3.2% -4.0% -5.2%    
   year-over-year % change 31.9% -41.9% -42.3% -26.5% 3.3% -18.9% -20.2% -25.5% -32.9% 30.9% -35.5%
Governmental Offices 1.043 0.842 0.773 0.674 0.819 0.886 0.805 0.818 0.822 5.068 4.126
   month-over-month % change 82.5% -19.2% -8.3% 37.8% 21.4% 8.2% 1.7% 1.5% 0.5%    
   year-over-year % change 18.6% 21.4% 6.8% -23.0% -15.4% 15.7% -5.6% -1.3% 0.6% 5.8% -18.6%
Laboratories 0.190 1.205 0.060 0.190 0.554 0.485 0.206 0.304 0.213 1.666 1.854
   month-over-month % change -29.1% 534.6% -95.0% 42.9% 191.5% -12.5% 5.6% 47.6% -29.8%    
   year-over-year % change 217.1% 4045.0% -94.7% 79.9% 837.5% 17.7% 23.1% 89.0% -15.0% 329.0% 11.3%
Warehouse 0.477 0.345 0.640 0.545 0.491 0.487 0.623 0.594 0.572 3.470 3.099
   month-over-month % change -26.6% -27.6% 85.3% 0.0% -10.0% -0.7% 1.4% -4.7% -3.6%    
   year-over-year % change 28.8% -50.5% -28.8% 20.0% -18.2% -25.6% 62.6% 41.6% 24.4% 67.2% -10.7%
Misc Commercial 0.419 1.468 1.625 0.871 0.800 1.171 1.049 1.119 1.189 6.602 6.972
   month-over-month % change -18.1% 250.2% 10.7% -24.5% -8.2% 46.4% -1.5% 6.7% 6.3%    
   year-over-year % change -31.0% 134.1% 107.8% -46.5% -53.6% 74.2% 5.1% 12.8% 20.5% -42.0% 5.6%
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 6.252 7.472 8.577 5.821 6.579 7.434 6.769 6.861 6.845 42.935 38.908
   month-over-month % change 4.0% 19.5% 14.8% 5.2% 13.0% 13.0% 0.2% 1.4% -0.2%    
   year-over-year % change 2.6% 17.3% -2.2% -18.7% -12.1% 5.0% 2.9% 2.9% -1.4% 1.5% -9.4%
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL  (Manufacturing) 0.142 2.368 1.173 1.647 2.410 1.228 1.023 1.198 1.080 5.520 8.899
   month-over-month % change -97.0% 1563.8% -50.5% -5.2% 46.3% -49.1% 0.2% 17.2% -9.9%    
   year-over-year % change 16.1% 803.5% -54.8% 147.9% 265.2% 23.6% 36.9% 61.9% 40.6% 26.6% 61.2%
Religious 0.084 0.137 0.264 0.100 0.112 0.162 0.118 0.119 0.129 0.713 0.846
   month-over-month % change -26.6% 64.0% 92.2% -17.2% 11.8% 44.7% -1.3% 1.2% 7.7%    
   year-over-year % change -17.7% 14.1% 72.2% -12.5% -0.2% 29.2% -20.8% -19.7% -6.5% -20.6% 18.6%
Hosptials/Clinics 0.595 0.677 0.874 0.701 0.689 0.715 1.000 0.951 0.983 6.822 5.089
   month-over-month % change -25.3% 13.9% 29.0% -28.5% -1.7% 3.8% -3.3% -4.9% 3.4%    
   year-over-year % change -40.9% -46.3% 79.6% -36.5% -44.4% -22.0% -22.9% -25.5% -15.1% -14.2% -25.4%
Nursing/Assisted Living 0.298 0.252 0.270 0.312 0.283 0.273 0.358 0.354 0.355 1.665 2.049
   month-over-month % change -0.7% -15.2% 6.9% -23.8% -9.2% -3.5% 1.2% -1.3% 0.5%    
   year-over-year % change 20.2% -18.7% 8.3% 10.6% -0.3% 1.6% 8.1% 7.4% 12.0% -16.7% 23.1%
Libraries/Museums 0.142 0.230 0.138 0.120 0.166 0.170 0.168 0.176 0.156 1.186 0.808
   month-over-month % change 13.0% 61.7% -39.8% 20.5% 38.2% 2.5% -2.8% 4.4% -11.5%    
   year-over-year % change -28.8% 62.9% -63.6% -41.1% 7.9% -29.2% -12.8% -9.4% -24.7% 32.9% -31.9%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 0.630 0.397 0.441 0.499 0.433 0.489 0.378 0.378 0.379 1.659 2.595
   month-over-month % change 130.5% -36.9% 11.2% 32.7% -13.1% 12.9% 10.3% 0.2% 0.2%    
   year-over-year % change 204.0% 1.8% 1.8% 114.4% 56.0% 42.5% 21.8% 26.4% 21.0% -15.9% 56.5%
Military 0.237 0.893 0.823 0.145 0.427 0.651 0.779 0.601 0.638 5.299 2.270
   month-over-month % change 59.0% 276.0% -7.8% 37.6% 193.8% 52.6% -1.0% -22.9% 6.2%    
   year-over-year % change -29.2% -70.5% 117.3% -69.5% -66.6% -47.8% 66.5% -13.7% -8.1% 163.3% -57.2%
Schools/Colleges 4.565 5.146 5.417 3.976 4.501 5.043 4.588 4.452 4.378 28.421 26.019
   month-over-month % change 20.3% 12.7% 5.3% 9.5% 13.2% 12.0% -2.4% -3.0% -1.7%    
   year-over-year % change -22.7% -24.1% -14.1% -2.7% -16.5% -20.3% 12.4% 4.3% 1.7% 16.7% -8.5%
Misc Government 0.216 0.116 0.475 0.172 0.147 0.269 0.173 0.169 0.201 1.343 1.361
   month-over-month % change 99.0% -46.1% 308.3% -6.7% -14.8% 83.1% -1.7% -2.0% 19.1%    
   year-over-year % change -14.5% -26.1% 440.5% -32.3% -41.9% 62.2% -30.2% -31.4% -16.1% 21.1% 1.3%
TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 6.765 7.848 8.702 6.026 6.758 7.772 7.561 7.200 7.219 47.108 41.037
   month-over-month % change 19.5% 16.0% 10.9% 2.0% 12.2% 15.0% -1.6% -4.8% 0.3%    
   year-over-year % change -18.0% -35.6% 2.6% -10.8% -24.8% -19.4% 6.9% -3.5% -2.1% 14.4% -12.9%
Misc Non Residential 0.353 0.365 0.361 0.280 0.332 0.360 0.323 0.330 0.328 1.839 1.868
   month-over-month % change 27.7% 3.5% -1.1% 6.6% 18.5% 8.5% 0.4% 2.2% -0.7%    
   year-over-year % change 5.1% 31.2% -7.3% -2.9% 4.3% 7.5% 9.6% 11.7% 7.5% 27.5% 1.5%
TOTAL NON-RES BUILDING 13.512 18.054 18.813 13.774 16.079 16.793 15.676 15.590 15.472 97.402 90.711
   month-over-month % change -18.9% 33.6% 4.2% 2.5% 16.7% 4.4% -0.7% -0.6% -0.8%    
   year-over-year % change -8.7% -5.5% -7.0% -7.3% -7.9% -6.9% 6.6% 2.8% 0.5% 9.1% -6.9%
Airports 0.091 0.195 0.379 0.142 0.177 0.221 0.276 0.272 0.277 1.015 1.077
   month-over-month % change -63.1% 114.1% 94.7% 3.0% 24.9% 24.9% -2.7% -1.3% 1.8%    
   year-over-year % change -50.4% -18.7% 18.1% 40.1% 4.4% -10.6% 16.4% 12.0% 15.9% 1.6% 6.1%
Roads/Highways 3.730 5.743 5.506 3.416 4.260 4.993 4.021 4.184 4.188 21.807 24.944
   month-over-month % change 12.8% 54.0% -4.1% 2.8% 24.7% 17.2% -0.5% 4.0% 0.1%    
   year-over-year % change -6.4% 51.6% 0.8% 6.0% 22.9% 13.1% 13.5% 17.9% 16.2% 10.7% 14.4%
Bridges 0.937 1.142 0.894 1.145 1.048 0.991 0.966 0.973 0.963 6.038 6.413
   month-over-month % change -11.9% 21.8% -21.7% -0.1% -8.5% -5.4% 1.5% 0.7% -1.1%    
   year-over-year % change 22.2% 8.1% -12.1% 10.3% 20.2% 4.7% 2.1% 2.8% -0.4% 18.3% 6.2%
Dams/Marine 0.620 0.349 0.262 0.512 0.426 0.410 0.504 0.497 0.487 1.896 2.689
   month-over-month % change 101.7% -43.7% -25.1% 5.4% -16.9% -3.6% 7.1% -1.4% -2.0%    
   year-over-year % change 182.4% -19.7% -31.6% 91.2% 27.4% 18.7% 29.0% 21.0% 18.4% -18.3% 41.8%
Water/Sewage 2.186 2.752 2.754 1.804 2.216 2.564 2.193 2.234 2.222 12.072 12.825
   month-over-month % change 27.9% 25.9% 0.1% 5.4% 22.8% 15.7% 1.0% 1.9% -0.5%    
   year-over-year % change 13.6% 21.6% -4.9% 1.1% 10.0% 8.6% 9.4% 9.2% 6.8% 13.4% 6.2%
Misc Civil 1.215 2.374 1.698 1.158 1.621 1.762 1.430 1.507 1.520 8.853 9.000
   month-over-month % change -4.7% 95.4% -28.5% -6.4% 39.9% 8.7% -0.1% 5.4% 0.9%    
   year-over-year % change -1.5% 64.4% 10.5% -25.2% -5.0% 25.5% -13.6% -10.1% -5.6% 19.5% 1.7%
TOTAL ENGINEERING 8.779 12.554 11.492 8.179 9.748 10.942 9.390 9.668 9.657 51.682 56.948
   month-over-month % change 11.0% 43.0% -8.5% 1.7% 19.2% 12.2% 0.4% 3.0% -0.1%    
   year-over-year % change 5.6% 36.1% -1.1% 2.7% 13.9% 12.6% 7.0% 9.0% 8.4% 11.9% 10.2%
GRAND TOTAL 36.094 45.843 47.670 35.174 39.618 43.202 41.034 40.960 40.773 251.138 233.775
   month-over-month % change -2.2% 27.0% 4.0% 1.3% 12.6% 9.0% -0.9% -0.2% -0.5%    
   year-over-year % change -10.8% -1.9% -4.5% -8.2% -7.7% -5.5% 2.8% 0.8% -0.4% 9.1% -6.9%
NON-RES BLDG + ENGINEERING 22.291 30.607 30.305 21.953 25.827 27.735 25.067 25.257 25.129 149.084 147.660
   month-over-month % change -9.3% 37.3% -1.0% 2.2% 17.6% 7.4% -0.3% 0.8% -0.5%    
   year-over-year % change -3.6% 8.1% -4.8% -3.8% -0.7% -0.1% 6.8% 5.1% 3.4% 10.1% -1.0%

Data Source and Table: CMD.

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